Holiday Shoppers Reject Discounts of Under 10% During Cost of Living Crisis, Ten-Year Study Finds

• New Holiday Marketing report includes research from over 200 billion emails sent across global retailers from 2015 to 2025. Email subject lines that include customer names, exclamation marks, discounts of 10% or less, or urgent phrases like “last chance” or “ending soon” perform the worst in the holiday season
• Question marks found to be four times more effective than exclamation marks in grabbing customer attention 
• The Christmas tree emoji (🎄) is the strongest performing emoji over the holidays, whilst use of snowflake (❄️) actively hurts performance 

Wednesday, November 26th – [LONDON/NEW YORK]: As retailers prepare for a record-breaking $253 billion online holiday season, shoppers navigating a cost-of-living crisis are rejecting small discounts as inadequate. A nine-year study of almost 200 billion email sends carried out by marketing platform Jacquard (www.jacquard.com) has found that discounts under 10% actively hurt engagement during the holidays, with shoppers holding out for offers of 30% or more.

The research also reveals engagement with discount language has increased year-on-year, demonstrating growing consumer focus on value. The finding comes as brands compete more fiercely than ever for consumer spending, with many racing to offer deeper discounts to stand out.

Jacquard’s Holiday Marketing Report 2025 analysed 200,000 promotional email subject lines of email campaigns sent almost 200 billion times from major retailers. The research challenges several established marketing practices: urgent language like “last chance” is 75% less effective during the holidays, while discounts of over 60% provide no benefit whatsoever. 

Jacquard combines AI technology with a team of computational linguists who calibrate campaign language to ensure it resonates authentically with customers, balancing algorithmic precision with human nuance. Jacquard customers include Sephora, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Sam’s Club, Best Buy, and Currys. 

With 2025 poised to deliver the first-ever quarter-trillion-dollar holiday season, Jacquard’s findings reveal which tactics will help brands stand out, and which industry conventions are destined to fail this year.

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The Goldilocks Discount

Mid-range discounts significantly outperform both shallow and deep discounts during the holidays, according to Jacquard’s analysis.

The data also shows discount language is becoming increasingly engaged with year-on-year, reflecting growing consumer focus on value during the cost of living crisis.

The data showed:

• 40-49% off performs best across all discount ranges
• 30-39% off also performs strongly
• 60%+ off shows essentially no benefit – neutral performance
• Under 10% off actively hurts engagement

Toby Coulthard, CPO at Jacquard comments: “Most brands assume bigger is better with discounts, but shoppers are inundated with emails, and don’t have time to assess whether a 70% offer is genuine or what the catch is – they’ve already moved on. 

Meanwhile, anything under 10% feels insulting when consumers know bigger offers are out there, especially during a cost of living crisis. What we’re also seeing year-on-year is that shoppers are engaging more with discount language overall – value has become the primary driver. The sweet spot is right in the middle, according to our data.” 

Unpopular Personalisation

Adding “for you” and first names to email subject lines reduces engagement, Jacquard’s research found – a trend that becomes particularly costly during the high-stakes holiday period when every email must perform. The finding comes as new Lloyd’s Bank data shows 43% of retailers plan to introduce personalised marketing campaigns this holiday season.

Toby Coulthard, CPO at Jacquard comments: “Consumers remember the brands they regularly engage with, so getting a personalised email from a retailer you made one purchase with years ago feels algorithmic and manipulative. Surface-level personalisation – such as simply inserting a name – ironically makes messaging feel less personal. Meaningful personalisation requires understanding the context of who you are reaching out to. Anything else risks appearing lazy.”

The Punctuation Debate

A single question mark in an email subject line drives 4X higher engagement than an exclamation point during the holidays, Jacquard’s data shows

The analysis also found:

• Use of a single exclamation point has minimal positive impact
• Three exclamation points hurt performance

Toby Coulthard, CPO at Jacquard comments: “Exclamation marks contribute to what is already an excessively noisy holiday season, with every brand clamouring for attention across a variety of social platforms. Inboxes filled with rows of exclamation marks are only going to make shoppers feel like they’re being shouted at. A question mark is more human, offering the reader a chance to respond.“

The Right Emoji

The Christmas tree emoji (🎄) outperforms the use of an exclamation point by 13X in driving engagement, making it the strongest single holiday marketing tactic measured in Jacquard’s study. However, the snowflake emoji (❄️) actively hurts email performance during the holidays.

Analysis of emoji use across 200,000 unique holiday marketing email subject lines showed: 

• 🎄 (Christmas tree) was the strongest single performer across all holiday marketing tactics measured
• 🎁 (gift) had a strong positive impact
• 🔥 (fire): was the next strongest performing emoji
• ❄️ (snowflake): had a negative impact on customer engagement 

“The Christmas tree is universally understood and emotionally resonant – it cuts through the noise,” said Toby Coulthard, CPO at Jacquard. “The snowflake, by contrast, feels generic and wintery rather than festive. Small distinctions matter when inboxes are this crowded. Even something like an emoji can make all the difference.”

Urgency Fatigue

Generic urgency tactics are 75% less effective during the holiday season than the rest of the year, according to Jacquard’s report. 

The data showed:

• Urgency language performs modestly well outside the holiday season
• During November-December, urgency becomes 75% less effective
• The holiday calendar itself creates urgency – adding more becomes redundant

Toby Coulthard, CPO at Jacquard comments: “When every brand is screaming “last chance,” “ending soon,” and “final hours,” the tactic becomes white noise – an inbox filled with a deluge of superlatives. Shoppers already feel deadline pressure from the calendar itself – they know Christmas is coming. Specific deadlines like “Order by Friday for Christmas delivery” cut through because they provide actual utility rather than manufactured panic.”

“New” and “Exclusive” Turn Shoppers Off

Jacquard’s data analysis found that shoppers are more responsive to deals than “new” or “exclusive” items. 

The data showed:

• “New” messaging (new items, just dropped, introducing) in email subject lines actively hurts performance
• “Exclusive/VIP” language has essentially no impact on shopper engagement – completely neutral

Toby Coulthard, CPO at Jacquard comments, “Throughout the year, “exclusive” and “new” drive interest. But during Black Friday through Christmas, shoppers are in a different mindset. During the holidays, consumers’ focus is on securing value rather than hunting for new trends.” 

Methodology:

This analysis examined almost 200 billion email sends from split tests conducted between 2015-2025, focusing on retail and e-commerce campaigns during Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Christmas periods. Performance was measured using normalised engagement scores across multiple tests.

The data reveals not just what worked in the past, but trending patterns showing which tactics are strengthening (percent-off language) and which are declining (urgency language) heading into this season.